NBL: Breaking down the case for three MVP frontrunners

Credit: Daniel Bennett Photography

Stats: 18.4 PTS, 2.1 AST, 2.3 REB, 42.3% 3PT

The case for: Best player on best team

NBL titles aren’t won in January.

But if they were, Melbourne United would be clearing a space in their trophy cabinet and getting their rings sized. Through the first 13 rounds of the season, they’ve been the best team in the league by a comically large margin – they’re leading all teams in offensive and defensive rating, with a net rating almost double that of the next-best side and a three-win bufferat the top of the table. 

When a team is so dominant, they almost have to have an MVP candidate by default. The “best player on the best team” argument is one that is rolled out every year, and it’s played a part in delivering the Andrew Gaze Trophy to Xavier Cooks, Jerome Randle and Cedric Jackson over the last decade. Make no mistake, though – those players weren’t token selections, and Chris Goulding is far from a token contender this season.

The veteran guard turned 35 in October, hadn’t led his own team in scoring since 2016, and returned once again to a star-studded Melbourne United roster. And yet, Goulding has been the unquestioned star for United, the most productive and most impactful player on the league’s benchmark team, and maybe the best version of himself that we’ve seen. His 18.4 points per game place him eighth in the league and represents his highest mark since the 2015-16 season, but even that doesn’t paint a full picture of his impact. 

He’s always been a ridiculous shot-maker with a fondness for the big moments, and that’s gone to another level this season as he’s blown countless games apart. From a 19-point comeback against Sydney powered by his 13 fourth-quarter points, to his four threes in a minute and a half against Brisbane, to any number of backbreaking, mind-boggling shots that have totally shifted the momentum, he’s consistently stepped up in the crunch and led from the front. There’s few things more entertaining than watching Goulding take over a game – the degree of difficulty is unmatched, and yet, it feels like every shot is destined for the bottom of the net.

An otherworldly shooter for the majority of his career, he’s risen to new heights from beyond the arc too, getting his own while warping opposing defences beyond recognition. His 10.5 three point attempts per game lead the league and are a new career-high mark, and in making 42% of them, he’s on a historic pace. No player in the 40-minute era has topped his 4.5 made triples per game, per SpatialJam; even including 48-minute games, only Shane Heal (5.0 in 1994) and Andrew Gaze (4.7 in 1998-99) are ahead.

Perhaps most impressive is how he can lead Melbourne’s offence as an out-and-out scorer while fitting seamlessly next to his star teammates. There’s sometimes a perception that shooters are one-dimensional players, but Goulding is living proof that that isn’t the case. He’s one of the most prolific and most efficient scorers in the league when coming off screens (1.18 points per play), hand-offs (1.32 PPP on a league-high 61 plays), and as a spot-up shooter (1.18 PPP), per Jordan McCallum. That skill-set has seen him take a back seat to a plethora of star teammates in recent years – big names like Lual-Acuil, Landale, Tucker, Trimble, Long, Ware, and Prather – but as the main man on a roster with teammates as talented as ever, he’s a leading contender for the NBL’s top individual prize.

The case against: Depth of talent

Of course, that strong supporting cast could also be used against Goulding in MVP discussions.