Hot topics close

Odds of asteroid hitting Earth in 2032 went up, but as expected ...

Odds of asteroid hitting Earth in 2032 went up but as expected
Planetary Society Chief Scientist Bruce Betts notes while counterintuitive, the odds of impact go up before they drop to zero.
Show Caption
Hide Caption

NASA observing ‘city-killer’ asteroid en route for Earth

NASA’s James Webb Space Telescope is helping astronomers study asteroid 2024 YR4, which has a small chance of striking Earth on December 22, 2032.

unbranded - Newsworthy

Astronomers have found an asteroid potentially nearly as tall as the Statue of Liberty, which could crash into Earth in less than eight years.

While it has the highest odds of any asteroid to crash into Earth in nearly two decades, it remains very slim. NASA said the asteroid has a 2.3% chance of colliding at the end of 2032.

The unsettling odds are the highest any asteroid has had of impacting Earth in more than two decades since the infamous Apophis was first discovered and later ruled out as a threat. But astronomers still aren't too concerned yet about YR4, and they insist that you shouldn't be, either.

In the weeks, months and years ahead, space agencies around the world plan to monitor YR4 to better calculate a trajectory that more than likely will be harmless. And on the slim chance that the asteroid does indeed pose a threat, it may be time for Earth to implement its planetary defense strategies that agencies like NASA and the European Space Agency have spent years readying.

Here's what to know about Asteroid YR4.

Will an asteroid crash into Earth?

According to NASA, Asteroid YR4 has a 2.3%, (or 1 in 43) chance of colliding with Earth on Dec. 22, 2032. The finding comes from studying the asteroid's current trajectory mixed with Earth's rotational patterns.

As NASA learns about the asteroid, they will learn where the asteroid is expected to collide with Earth, and the odds are, with less uncertainty, the probability of impact will go to zero, the Planetary Society says.

Planetary Society Chief Scientist Bruce Betts notes while counterintuitive, the odds of impact go up before they drop to zero.

He explains that the uncertainty of the asteroid's path decreases as more observations come in. Yet, while that path includes Earth, and there is less uncertainty, the probability of impact increases.

"This is usually temporary, as further observations shrink that area even more, eventually showing with high certainty that the asteroid will miss our planet. When this happens, the impact probability drops to zero," the Planetary Society said.

Where is the collision path?

It is not yet known where the asteroid will collide with Earth, if at all. The answer will come with more observation.

How big is the asteroid? Could there be damage?

NASA reports that the asteroid is estimated to be 130-300 feet across. On the small end, it can be as long as two bowling alleys back to back or just 5 feet shorter than the Statue of Liberty on the long end.

NASA hasn't detailed what damage could come from this asteroid should it collide with Earth in 2032.

Is this the first asteroid that could hit Earth?

No. It's hard to find an asteroid with a non-zero chance of hitting Earth, 2024 YR4 happens to be the only asteroid with more than a 1 in a 1,000 chance of impact.

Russia has seen two asteroid events since the 1900s. Both asteroids were not larger than 90 feet in diameter and exploded while in the air before impacting Earth.

The Tunguska Event, named after the city in Russia it impacted, knocked down approximately 80 million trees over 830 square miles. The explosion is estimated to have been 1,000 times more powerful than the bombing of Hiroshima.

"Had this taken place over a metropolitan area, that city would have been completely destroyed. Luckily, it happened in a remote area of Siberia, and nobody is thought to have been killed," the planetary society writes.

If you're worried that this could be the asteroid that killed the dinosaurs, that fear is not necessary. For scale, the Chicxulub asteroid, which collided 65 million years ago, measured 6 to 9 miles in diameter.

USA Today contributed to this report.

Similar shots
  • Asteroid 2024 YR4 Could Hit Earth in 2032
News Archive
  • Spain vs France
    Spain vs France
    Euro 2024 Spain 2-1 France: Lamine Yamal's wonder goal helps ...
    9 Jul 2024
    5
  • Man City vs West Ham
    Man City vs West Ham
    Man City 4-1 West Ham: Erling Haaland scores two as Savinho ...
    4 Jan 2025
    10
  • Waltham Pool
    Waltham Pool
    'That's my baby': Child dies in suspected drowning at Christchurch swimming pool
    22 Dec 2021
    2
  • Chateau Tongariro
    Chateau Tongariro
    Grand Chateau Tongariro to close permanently on February 5
    31 Jan 2023
    3
  • Auckland Council
    Auckland Council
    Beautification Trust has lengthy mahi recognised
    10 Jun 2024
    25
This week's most popular shots