Australians are feeling less opposed to a Donald Trump presidency than four years ago, and less sure the Aukus agreement will make Australia more secure, the latest Guardian Essential poll shows.

Trump, who recently survived an assassination attempt, has seen a 15-point surge in support since November 2020, with 36% of polled Australians now saying they have a “favourable” view of him.

If the Australian respondents were participating in the US election, 37% said they would vote for Harris and the Democrats, while 29% would vote for Trump and the Republicans. Almost 20% wouldn’t vote, with another 15% choosing a third candidate.

But fewer Australians believe Aukus will improve Australia’s security. That measure has fallen from 45% in September 2021 to 37% in the latest poll. Another 44% of respondents believe the security pact won’t affect Australia’s security at all, while 19% believe it will make Australia less secure.

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Despite the number of Australians warming to Trump, vice-president Kamala Harris is more popular with Australians than the Republican presidential nominee, at 48% favourability. Harris is expected to be affirmed as the Democratic presidential nominee next week.

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Anthony Albanese’s approval rating sits just slightly above Peter Dutton’s, with 43% of voters approving of the job he is doing, compared with 42% for Dutton. But Albanese continues to have a higher disapproval rating, at 47%, despite winning back three points of favourability. Disapproval of the job Dutton is doing is at 41%. The remainder for both were undecided.

Respondents were not feeling overly optimistic about the direction of Australia. A majority of 52% felt the nation was on the wrong track, while 32% were the opposite. New South Wales and Queensland residents were more likely to be feeling pessimistic, with just 29% feeling positive about the country’s direction, compared with 55% expressing negative feelings.

Victorians were close behind in the gloomy stakes, with only one in three (31%) believing Australia was headed in the right direction. Western Australians and South Australians were the happiest, with opinions split at 40% in response to both questions.

The allegations facing the construction branch of the CFMEU have not dimmed Australian’s view of unions, with 63% believing unions were good for the economy as they helped more evenly distribute wealth. And 52% of respondents thought workers would be better off if unions were stronger.

Respondents were more concerned about corruption in government (39%) and corporations (32%) than unions (30%); and 48% believed the economy put the interests of business ahead of workers. The poll found 40% believed the balance was just right.

Two-thirds of respondents (66%) believed big business had too much power, while 56% were concerned about how much power governments had. Only 41% felt unions had too much power in Australia.

Guardian Essential polled 1,137 people across Australia last week.

• Essential poll
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• Anthony Albanese
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